Focussing here on the human impacts of potential glacier loss, a 2009 Bloomberg article assesses the security risks associated with water scarcity, through looking at a report by the Asia Society. The article begins by stating that the water supplies of China and India are predicted to decline alongside the shrinking of Himalayan glaciers as a result of global climate change. This in turn is likely to begin or exacerbate regional conflicts.
This conflict, the author states, could come as a result of several factors. Asia contains half of the global population, yet has least water of any continent (with the superfluous exception of Antarctica). There exist problems of waterborne diseases throughout Asia, and these could certainly be amplified by water scarcity. As well as this, lack of fresh water could trigger mass migration and invigorate cross-border conflicts over water control. Evidently, there exist many potential sparks of conflict.
As well as this, the threat to agricultural production in the region is very real. Increased amplitude of dry and wet seasons caused by the influence of climate change on regional atmospheric patterns may overwhelm and destroy a proportion of crops. As well as this, any change in Asian crop yields (particularly China or India) would most certainly affect world food prices.
There is a particular problem in Pakistan, with approximately 77 percent of its water resources coming from outside of its borders. As a result of this situation, Pakistan holds a water treaty (since 1947) with India which guarantees sufficient supply. Of course, since that time, there have been several territorial and other disputes between the two countries. Most recently, Pakistan-based terrorists launched an attack on Mumbai in 2008. This further tension caused those in Pakistan to criticise the failures of India to always adhere to the treaty. Underlying all of this, they suggested, lay the long standing violent disagreement over the Kashmir region. These alleged abuses of the treaty in the past are particularly important when the population figures of 180 million presently (a tripling since 1950) and of a predicted 335 million by 2050 are seen.
The article then looks, albeit briefly, at the rapid melting of some Himalayan glaciers as a consequence of climate change and attempts to link this with the security issues. The author states that:
“Melting Himalayan glaciers now account for up to 70 percent of the summer flow of the Ganges River and about 55 percent of Asia’s other major river systems, according to the report. In 30 years, as the glaciers continue to retreat, the Indus and Mekong rivers could be dry during part of the year, the report said.”
Therefore, with the regional effects of climate change on temperature and a seemingly large degree of uncertainty regarding how the Himalayan glaciers will respond (unlikely uniformly), there is a great deal of potential danger associated with glacier retreat and water scarcity in the region.
In a separate article shown on the Policy Research Group website, much the same conclusions are found regarding the Pakistan example. The author, using World Bank estimates, shows that:
“... Pakistan’s Indus River will be negatively impacted by climate change, with incidents of flooding in the Indus basin expected to increase over the next 50 years. In addition, estimates suggest that there will be a 30-40% reduction in river flow over the next 100 years due to natural climatic and environmental changes.”
The article then notes that the Pakistani government, and more specifically the Indus water commissioner, feel the issue has received insufficient media coverage when compared to the potential damage that could take place. And looking at western media outlets, it would be hard to disagree with this assessment. Finally, the Indus water commissioner states belief in climate change as the primary driver of Pakistan’s water scarcity problems both now and in the future. However, as will be discussed in a following blog post, this is certainly not the belief of all scientists. Indeed, several have stated the exact opposite of this opinion.
Figure 1. View of the Indus River, fed from the glacial Himalayas
With regards to this last opinion of the Indus water commissioner; according to a weblog article by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) several officials in India believe that it is governmental mismanagement of water resources - and not climate change - that are responsible for water scarcity. Indeed, the article goes into slightly greater depth over the risk of conflict over water between Pakistan and India. It highlights the frustration of many of the rural poor in Pakistan regarding the observed extended dry spells, and a subsequent temptation to blame India for these droughts. Despite this desperation, there seems to be no evidence of this practice (according to the Indus water commissioner). Whilst cooperation on the water treaty has survived many of the previous disputes between the two countries, several militant Islamic groups have been seen to use this regional frustration for self gain. This threat of water cut-off by India is used by the militants to garner support for their wider agenda as well, which is in all probability aimed at destabilising the region.
It can be seen that water scarcity and regional security are very closely interlinked. Thus, with regional uncertainty of how glaciers may react to climate change, it is of wide ranging importance that greater certainty is achieved. Whilst this blog has looked more at the physical characteristics of past and future glacier change, it has been shown here that there is a inextricably linked human dimension to our knowledge of future glacier dynamics.
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